Michael Dec

Right wing, 19.6 years old, Erie Otters (OHL), 5′10″ 161 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

27%

AHLer

Scouting report

Michael Dec is a 19-year-old right wing with Erie Otters in the OHL, undrafted. He has 3 goals and 11 assists in 11 games, 1.27 a game, which works out to about 15 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.62 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. At 19.6 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 161 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 8% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
First-liner8%
Middle-sixer11%
Fourth-liner27%
Tweener37%
AHLer (most likely)75%

How he got there

1His line
1.27 P/GP
3 G, 11 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
15 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+38%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Erie Otters	OHL	11	3	11	14	1.27
Last season	Erie Otters	OHL	62	28	40	68	1.10