Prospect board, #437 overall
Nate Yellowaga
Defence, 18.5 years old, Victoria Royals (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
27%
Scouting report
Nate Yellowaga is an 18-year-old defenceman with Victoria Royals in the WHL. He has 1 goal and 3 assists in 9 games, 0.44 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.25 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 25 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair5%
- Second-pair6%
- Third-pair27%
- Tweener36%
- AHLer (most likely)61%
How he got there
1His line
0.44 P/GP
1 G, 3 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−21%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Victoria Royals | WHL | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.44 |
| Last season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 67 | 7 | 20 | 27 | 0.40 |