Prospect board, #302 overall
Nathan Frost
Defence, 16.4 years old, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL), 6′1″ 192 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
25%
Scouting report
Nathan Frost is a 16-year-old defenceman with Charlottetown Islanders in the QMJHL. He has 0 goals and 3 assists in 9 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 16.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 192 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 25% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 15% of a top-pair career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair15%
- Second-pair20%
- Third-pair25%
- Tweener26%
- AHLer43%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
0 G, 3 A in 9 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+2%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
16.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Charlottetown Islanders | QMJHL | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.33 |