Nathan Quinn

Centre, 19.1 years old, Québec Remparts (QMJHL), 5′11″ 181 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

13%

AHLer

Scouting report

Nathan Quinn is a 19-year-old centre with Québec Remparts in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 7 goals and 7 assists in 9 games, 1.56 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 181 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner5%
Middle-sixer8%
Fourth-liner13%
Tweener19%
AHLer (most likely)60%

How he got there

1His line
1.56 P/GP
7 G, 7 A in 9 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−13%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
46 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Québec Remparts	QMJHL	9	7	7	14	1.56
Last season	Québec Remparts	QMJHL	58	34	39	73	1.26