Prospect board, #553 overall
Nikita Novikov
Defence, 23.1 years old, Ontario Reign (AHL), 6′4″ 205 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
21%
Scouting report
Nikita Novikov is a 23-year-old defenceman with Ontario Reign in the AHL. He has 6 goals and 14 assists in 64 games, 0.31 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 21% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair<1%
- Third-pair21%
- Tweener38%
- AHLer (most likely)94%
How he got there
1His line
0.31 P/GP
6 G, 14 A in 64 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−1%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
19 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Ontario Reign | AHL | 64 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 0.31 |