Noah Chadwick

Defence, 21.4 years old, Toronto Marlies (AHL), 6′4″ 208 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

26%

AHLer

Scouting report

Noah Chadwick is a 21-year-old defenceman with Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.39 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.

At 21.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 26% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 20 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
Top-pair1%
Second-pair3%
Third-pair26%
Tweener44%
AHLer (most likely)93%

How he got there

1His line
0.40 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Toronto Marlies	AHL	5	1	1	2	0.40
Last season	Toronto Marlies	AHL	68	5	18	23	0.34