Prospect board, #274 overall
Noah Davidson
Left wing, 17.9 years old, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
29%
Scouting report
Noah Davidson is a 17-year-old left wing with Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL. He has 30 goals and 22 assists in 67 games, 0.78 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 5.0 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.54 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 29% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 43 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer19%
- Fourth-liner29%
- Tweener42%
- AHLer (most likely)74%
How he got there
1His line
0.78 P/GP
30 G, 22 A in 67 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−25%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
43 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Medicine Hat Tigers | WHL | 67 | 30 | 22 | 52 | 0.78 |