Noah Degenstein

Centre, 19.6 years old, Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

<1%

Long shot

Scouting report

Noah Degenstein is a 19-year-old centre with Moose Jaw Warriors in the WHL, undrafted. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in 8 games, 0.38 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.15 a game last season.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a under 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner<1%
Middle-sixer<1%
Fourth-liner<1%
Tweener<1%
AHLer12%

How he got there

1His line
0.38 P/GP
2 G, 1 A in 8 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+7%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
5 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Moose Jaw Warriors	WHL	8	2	1	3	0.38
Last season	Moose Jaw Warriors	WHL	62	3	6	9	0.15