Prospect board, #832 overall
Noah Dower Nilsson
Left wing, 21.4 years old, Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), 6′1″ 197 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Noah Dower Nilsson is a 21-year-old left wing with Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 3 assists in 7 games, 0.43 a game, which works out to about 14 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 3.7 a game, one of the better offences around. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
At 21.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 197 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner14%
- Tweener19%
- AHLer (most likely)53%
How he got there
1His line
0.43 P/GP
0 G, 3 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
14 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−9%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
32 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Grand Rapids Griffins | AHL | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.43 |