Prospect board, #2065 overall
Nolan Chastko
Centre, 21.1 years old, Everett Silvertips (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
1%
Scouting report
Nolan Chastko is a 21-year-old centre with Everett Silvertips in the WHL, undrafted. He has 10 goals and 25 assists in 68 games, 0.51 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.5 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 21.1 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner1%
- Tweener1%
- AHLer13%
How he got there
1His line
0.51 P/GP
10 G, 25 A in 68 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Everett Silvertips | WHL | 68 | 10 | 25 | 35 | 0.51 |