Nolann Héroux

Right wing, 17.5 years old, Val-d'Or Foreurs (QMJHL), 5′8″ 160 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

21%

AHLer

Scouting report

Nolann Héroux is a 17-year-old right wing with Val-d'Or Foreurs in the QMJHL. He has 5 goals and 9 assists in 12 games, 1.17 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.33 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.35 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 5-foot-8 and 160 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 21% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 9% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite3%
First-liner9%
Middle-sixer15%
Fourth-liner21%
Tweener27%
AHLer (most likely)51%

How he got there

1His line
1.17 P/GP
5 G, 9 A in 12 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−10%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
49 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Val-d'Or Foreurs	QMJHL	12	5	9	14	1.17
Last season	Saint John Sea Dogs	QMJHL	39	3	10	13	0.33