Prospect board, #1392 overall
Nolan Schmidt
Right wing, 18.5 years old, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
5%
Scouting report
Nolan Schmidt is an 18-year-old right wing with Red Deer Rebels in the WHL. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.0 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.28 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner5%
- Tweener7%
- AHLer30%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 4 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 30 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 |