Oscar Fisker Mølgaard

Forward, 21.6 years old, Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL), 6′0″ 182 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

30%

AHLer

Scouting report

Oscar Fisker Mølgaard is a 21-year-old forward with Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 6 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.26 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 182 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 35 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner4%
Middle-sixer11%
Fourth-liner30%
Tweener44%
AHLer (most likely)89%

How he got there

1His line
0.50 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−17%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
35 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Coachella Valley Firebirds	AHL	6	1	2	3	0.50
Last season	Coachella Valley Firebirds	AHL	49	10	24	34	0.69