Patrik Ula

Left wing, 16.8 years old, Sudbury Wolves (OHL), 5′10″ 185 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

36%

AHLer

Scouting report

Patrik Ula is a 16-year-old left wing with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 0 assists in 8 games, 0.25 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.3 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.

At 16.8 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 185 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 36% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 6% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 41 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite4%
First-liner6%
Middle-sixer18%
Fourth-liner36%
Tweener43%
AHLer (most likely)58%

How he got there

1His line
0.25 P/GP
2 G, 0 A in 8 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−17%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Sudbury Wolves	OHL	8	2	0	2	0.25
Last season	Sudbury Wolves	OHL	4	1	1	2	0.50