Prospect board, #294 overall
Paxson Madill
Right wing, 16.3 years old, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
33%
Scouting report
Paxson Madill is a 16-year-old right wing with Red Deer Rebels in the WHL. He has 0 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.0 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.27 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
At 16.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 33% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 41 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite5%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer17%
- Fourth-liner33%
- Tweener33%
- AHLer (most likely)64%
How he got there
1His line
0.67 P/GP
0 G, 4 A in 6 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.67 |