Peter Green

Scouting report

Peter Green is a 17-year-old defenceman with Brampton Steelheads in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 6 assists in 10 games, 0.70 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.22 a game last season. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.75 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.

At 17.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 190 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 45% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 20% of a top-pair career and 9% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 36 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.