GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1342 overall

Rhett Parsons

Defence, 23.1 years old, Toronto Marlies (AHL), 6′3″ 222 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

8%

Long shot

Scouting report

Rhett Parsons is a 23-year-old defenceman with Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 8 games, 0.12 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 222 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 8% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair<1%
  3. Second-pair1%
  4. Third-pair8%
  5. Tweener9%
  6. AHLer31%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.13 P/GP

    0 G, 1 A in 8 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    4 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    No change

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    23.1

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    21 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonToronto MarliesAHL80110.13