Prospect board, #281 overall
Riley Patterson
Centre, 20.5 years old, Abbotsford Canucks (AHL), 6′1″ 192 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
30%
Scouting report
Riley Patterson is a 20-year-old centre with Abbotsford Canucks in the AHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 20.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 192 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 11% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 41 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner11%
- Middle-sixer14%
- Fourth-liner30%
- Tweener34%
- AHLer (most likely)80%
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−7%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Abbotsford Canucks | AHL | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Niagara IceDogs | OHL | 60 | 40 | 44 | 84 | 1.40 |
| Last season | Abbotsford Canucks | AHL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 |