Prospect board, #86 overall
Rory Kerins
Centre, 21.8 years old, Calgary Wranglers (AHL), 5′11″ 190 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
67%
Scouting report
Rory Kerins is a 21-year-old centre with Calgary Wranglers in the AHL. He has 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games, 0.57 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 190 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 67% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 17% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 38 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner17%
- Middle-sixer26%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)67%
- Tweener77%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.57 P/GP
3 G, 1 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
18 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−11%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Calgary Wranglers | AHL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0.57 |
| Last season | Calgary Wranglers | AHL | 56 | 22 | 35 | 57 | 1.02 |