Prospect board, #458 overall
Rowan Henderson
Left wing, 18.8 years old, Sudbury Wolves (OHL), 6′0″ 183 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
23%
Scouting report
Rowan Henderson is an 18-year-old left wing with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL. He has 6 goals and 3 assists in 10 games, 0.90 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.52 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.38 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 183 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 23% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer12%
- Fourth-liner23%
- Tweener35%
- AHLer (most likely)63%
How he got there
1His line
0.90 P/GP
6 G, 3 A in 10 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sudbury Wolves | OHL | 10 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.90 |
| Last season | Sudbury Wolves | OHL | 62 | 12 | 20 | 32 | 0.52 |