Prospect board, #112 overall
Ryan Brown
Left wing, 18.9 years old, London Knights (OHL), 6′0″ 192 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
46%
Scouting report
Ryan Brown is an 18-year-old left wing with London Knights in the OHL. He has 0 goals and 8 assists in 5 games, 1.60 a game, which works out to about 19 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.3 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 192 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 46% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 7% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 47 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite7%
- First-liner13%
- Middle-sixer32%
- Fourth-liner46%
- Tweener (most likely)58%
- AHLer86%
How he got there
1His line
1.60 P/GP
0 G, 8 A in 5 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
19 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
47 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | London Knights | OHL | 5 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 1.60 |
| Last season | London Knights | OHL | 67 | 22 | 41 | 63 | 0.94 |