Ryan Hanrahan

Centre, 16.9 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 6′3″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

27%

AHLer

Scouting report

Ryan Hanrahan is a 16-year-old centre with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 4 assists in 11 games, 0.45 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.60 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.

At 16.9 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 13% of a first-line career and 6% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 52 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite6%
First-liner13%
Middle-sixer19%
Fourth-liner27%
Tweener42%
AHLer (most likely)59%

How he got there

1His line
0.45 P/GP
1 G, 4 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
53 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Saginaw Spirit	OHL	11	1	4	5	0.45
Last season	Saginaw Spirit	OHL	46	4	8	12	0.26