Ryan Kaczynski

Left wing, 17.2 years old, Soo Greyhounds (OHL), 6′3″ 190 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

34%

AHLer

Scouting report

Ryan Kaczynski is a 17-year-old left wing with Soo Greyhounds in the OHL. He has 8 goals and 1 assist in 10 games, 0.90 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.21 a game last season. His team scores 3.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.

At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 34% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 15% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 50 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite3%
First-liner15%
Middle-sixer26%
Fourth-liner34%
Tweener47%
AHLer (most likely)62%

How he got there

1His line
0.90 P/GP
8 G, 1 A in 10 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+14%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
50 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Soo Greyhounds	OHL	10	8	1	9	0.90
Last season	Soo Greyhounds	OHL	47	2	8	10	0.21