Prospect board, #3 overall
Ryan Lin
Defence, 18.4 years old, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
85%
Scouting report
Ryan Lin is an 18-year-old defenceman with Vancouver Giants in the WHL. He has 14 goals and 43 assists in 53 games, 1.08 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.63 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
His most likely outcome is an elite player, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 85% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 74% of a top-pair career and 59% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 54 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. That is the top of this model's scale.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite (most likely)59%
- Top-pair74%
- Second-pair75%
- Third-pair85%
- Tweener92%
- AHLer95%
How he got there
1His line
1.08 P/GP
14 G, 43 A in 53 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+42%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
54 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Vancouver Giants | WHL | 53 | 14 | 43 | 57 | 1.08 |