Ryerson Edgar

Centre, 17.1 years old, Niagara IceDogs (OHL), 5′10″ 165 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

74%

First-liner

Scouting report

Ryerson Edgar is a 17-year-old centre with Niagara IceDogs in the OHL. He has 5 goals and 7 assists in 11 games, 1.09 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.77 a game last season. His team scores 3.1 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.

At 17.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. His most likely outcome is a first-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 74% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 54% of a first-line career and 24% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 64 points a season at his best. If the scoring holds up against older players, the first-line odds go up with it.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite24%
First-liner (most likely)54%
Middle-sixer68%
Fourth-liner74%
Tweener85%
AHLer89%

How he got there

1His line
1.09 P/GP
5 G, 7 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+16%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
64 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	11	5	7	12	1.09
Last season	Niagara IceDogs	OHL	64	23	26	49	0.77