Prospect board, #696 overall
Sam O'Reilly
Centre, 20.5 years old, Syracuse Crunch (AHL), 6′2″ 198 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Sam O'Reilly is a 20-year-old centre with Syracuse Crunch in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.69 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
At 20.5 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 198 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner14%
- Tweener20%
- AHLer (most likely)56%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+28%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Syracuse Crunch | AHL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Kitchener Rangers | OHL | 56 | 29 | 42 | 71 | 1.27 |