Sam Roberts

Right wing, 17.3 years old, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL), 6′3″ 186 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

24%

AHLer

Scouting report

Sam Roberts is a 17-year-old right wing with Brantford Bulldogs in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 11 games, 0.45 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.16 a game last season. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 186 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 24% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner7%
Middle-sixer14%
Fourth-liner24%
Tweener37%
AHLer (most likely)55%

How he got there

1His line
0.45 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−8%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
43 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Brantford Bulldogs	OHL	11	2	3	5	0.45
Last season	Oshawa Generals	OHL	55	4	5	9	0.16