Prospect board, #429 overall
Sawyer Schmidt
Centre, 16.7 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 5′11″ 180 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
25%
Scouting report
Sawyer Schmidt is a 16-year-old centre with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 11 games, 0.18 a game, which works out to about 2 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.60 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 16.7 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 25% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 8% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 39 points a season at his best. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner8%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner25%
- Tweener37%
- AHLer43%
How he got there
1His line
0.18 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
2 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−19%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
39 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.18 |
| Last season | Saginaw Spirit | OHL | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 |