Prospect board, #260 overall
Shaeffer Gordon-Carroll
Centre, 17.8 years old, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Shaeffer Gordon-Carroll is a 17-year-old centre with Medicine Hat Tigers in the WHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 8 games, 0.12 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
That is down from 0.90 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 7% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 49 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite4%
- First-liner7%
- Middle-sixer23%
- Fourth-liner28%
- Tweener32%
- AHLer (most likely)69%
How he got there
1His line
0.13 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 8 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
1 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−9%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
49 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Medicine Hat Tigers | WHL | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 |
| Last season | Medicine Hat Tigers | WHL | 41 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 0.90 |