Prospect board, #799 overall
Shai Buium
Defence, 23.5 years old, Grand Rapids Griffins (AHL), 6′4″ 210 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Shai Buium is a 23-year-old defenceman with Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 4 assists in 7 games, 0.57 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 3.7 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair1%
- Third-pair14%
- Tweener21%
- AHLer (most likely)68%
How he got there
1His line
0.57 P/GP
0 G, 4 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
18 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−9%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
20 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Grand Rapids Griffins | AHL | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.57 |
| Last season | Grand Rapids Griffins | AHL | 36 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 0.39 |