Stepan Kuryachenkov

Left wing, 18.2 years old, Brampton Steelheads (OHL), 6′0″ 176 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

34%

AHLer

Scouting report

Stepan Kuryachenkov is an 18-year-old left wing with Brampton Steelheads in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 10 games, 0.30 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.

That is down from 0.60 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.80 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 176 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 34% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 49 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite4%
First-liner10%
Middle-sixer26%
Fourth-liner34%
Tweener48%
AHLer (most likely)64%

How he got there

1His line
0.30 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 10 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+28%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
49 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Brampton Steelheads	OHL	10	1	2	3	0.30
Last season	Swift Current Broncos	WHL	47	12	16	28	0.60