Thomas Charbonneau

Defence, 17.3 years old, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL), 6′2″ 183 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

16%

Long shot

Scouting report

Thomas Charbonneau is a 17-year-old defenceman with Saint John Sea Dogs in the QMJHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 11 games, 0.45 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.23 a game last season. His team scores 3.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.

At 17.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 183 pounds. His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 16% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 8% of a top-pair career. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
Top-pair8%
Second-pair8%
Third-pair16%
Tweener25%
AHLer49%

How he got there

1His line
0.45 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 11 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+12%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Saint John Sea Dogs	QMJHL	11	2	3	5	0.45
Last season	Québec Remparts	QMJHL	48	2	9	11	0.23