Tobias Tomik

Left wing, 18.7 years old, Vancouver Giants (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

11%

AHLer

Scouting report

Tobias Tomik is an 18-year-old left wing with Vancouver Giants in the WHL. He has 3 goals and 4 assists in 10 games, 0.70 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.46 a game last season.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 11% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner2%
Middle-sixer6%
Fourth-liner11%
Tweener16%
AHLer (most likely)54%

How he got there

1His line
0.70 P/GP
3 G, 4 A in 10 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+3%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Vancouver Giants	WHL	10	3	4	7	0.70
Last season	Vancouver Giants	WHL	61	12	16	28	0.46