Prospect board, #611 overall
Tomas Kralovic
Defence, 21.1 years old, Syracuse Crunch (AHL), 6′4″ 207 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
24%
Scouting report
Tomas Kralovic is a 21-year-old defenceman with Syracuse Crunch in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.69 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
At 21.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 207 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 24% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair2%
- Second-pair4%
- Third-pair24%
- Tweener29%
- AHLer (most likely)60%
How he got there
1His line
0.20 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+23%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
22 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Syracuse Crunch | AHL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 |