Tommy Bleyl

Defence, 18.8 years old, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL), 6′0″ 160 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

51%

Third-pair

Scouting report

Tommy Bleyl is an 18-year-old defenceman with Moncton Wildcats in the QMJHL. He has 13 goals and 68 assists in 63 games, 1.29 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.29 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 160 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a third-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 51% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 11% of a top-pair career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 32 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
Top-pair11%
Second-pair34%
Third-pair (most likely)51%
Tweener51%
AHLer77%

How he got there

1His line
1.29 P/GP
13 G, 68 A in 63 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−22%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
32 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Last season	Moncton Wildcats	QMJHL	63	13	68	81	1.29