Prospect board, #1095 overall
Tommy Lafreniere
Forward, 19.7 years old, Kamloops Blazers (WHL), 6′0″ 183 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
7%
Scouting report
Tommy Lafreniere is a 19-year-old forward with Kamloops Blazers in the WHL. He has 41 goals and 36 assists in 67 games, 1.15 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. At 19.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 183 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 7% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner7%
- Tweener9%
- AHLer (most likely)51%
How he got there
1His line
1.15 P/GP
41 G, 36 A in 67 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Kamloops Blazers | WHL | 67 | 41 | 36 | 77 | 1.15 |
| Last season | Bakersfield Condors | AHL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 |