Prospect board, #444 overall
Tucker Robertson
Right wing, 23.2 years old, Bakersfield Condors (AHL), 5′11″ 194 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Tucker Robertson is a 23-year-old right wing with Bakersfield Condors in the AHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 5 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 32 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 3.0 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 194 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 29 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner28%
- Tweener38%
- AHLer (most likely)93%
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
32 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+10%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Bakersfield Condors | AHL | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | AHL | 63 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 0.44 |