GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #59 overall

Tyler Cooper

Centre, 16.8 years old, Erie Otters (OHL), 5′11″ 185 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

62%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Tyler Cooper is a 16-year-old centre with Erie Otters in the OHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 9 games, 0.11 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.

That is down from 0.37 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.77 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. At 16.8 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds. His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 62% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 25% of a first-line career and 9% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 51 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite9%
  2. First-liner25%
  3. Middle-sixer48%
  4. Fourth-liner (most likely)62%
  5. Tweener69%
  6. AHLer81%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.11 P/GP

    0 G, 1 A in 9 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    1 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    +24%

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    16.8

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    51 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonErie OttersOHL90110.11
Last seasonErie OttersOHL631112230.37