Prospect board, #949 overall
Tyler Hopkins
Centre, 19.6 years old, Guelph Storm (OHL), 6′1″ 197 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
9%
Scouting report
Tyler Hopkins is a 19-year-old centre with Guelph Storm in the OHL, undrafted. He has 7 goals and 6 assists in 9 games, 1.44 a game, which works out to about 17 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.89 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.41 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. At 19.6 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 197 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 9% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner9%
- Tweener14%
- AHLer (most likely)51%
How he got there
1His line
1.44 P/GP
7 G, 6 A in 9 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
17 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−13%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
39 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Guelph Storm | OHL | 9 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 1.44 |
| Last season | Guelph Storm | OHL | 56 | 25 | 25 | 50 | 0.89 |