Prospect board, #231 overall
Ty Nelson
Defence, 22.5 years old, Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL), 5′10″ 215 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
37%
Scouting report
Ty Nelson is a 22-year-old defenceman with Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL. He has 11 goals and 24 assists in 63 games, 0.56 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 215 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 37% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 25 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair4%
- Second-pair11%
- Third-pair37%
- Tweener (most likely)62%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.56 P/GP
11 G, 24 A in 63 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
18 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−3%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 63 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 0.56 |