Ulysses Lombardi

Centre, 18.2 years old, Erie Otters (OHL), 6′1″ 183 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

46%

Tweener

Scouting report

Ulysses Lombardi is an 18-year-old centre with Erie Otters in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 games, 0.38 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.

That is down from 0.59 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.77 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 183 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 46% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 20% of a first-line career and 7% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 51 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite7%
First-liner20%
Middle-sixer34%
Fourth-liner46%
Tweener (most likely)61%
AHLer67%

How he got there

1His line
0.38 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 8 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+26%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
51 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Erie Otters	OHL	8	1	2	3	0.38
Last season	Erie Otters	OHL	32	6	13	19	0.59