Prospect board, #475 overall
Vladimir Dravecky
Defence, 18.7 years old, Guelph Storm (OHL), 6′0″ 192 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
30%
Scouting report
Vladimir Dravecky is an 18-year-old defenceman with Guelph Storm in the OHL. He has 4 goals and 10 assists in 9 games, 1.56 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.48 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.39 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 192 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 30% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 21 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair2%
- Second-pair4%
- Third-pair30%
- Tweener39%
- AHLer (most likely)67%
How he got there
1His line
1.56 P/GP
4 G, 10 A in 9 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
18 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−16%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Guelph Storm | OHL | 9 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 1.56 |
| Last season | Brantford Bulldogs | OHL | 58 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 0.48 |