Yanis Lutz

Centre, 18.4 years old, Peterborough Petes (OHL), 5′11″ 160 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

21%

AHLer

Scouting report

Yanis Lutz is an 18-year-old centre with Peterborough Petes in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 6 assists in 12 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 20% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
First-liner3%
Middle-sixer7%
Fourth-liner21%
Tweener38%
AHLer (most likely)60%

How he got there

1His line
0.67 P/GP
2 G, 6 A in 12 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+3%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Peterborough Petes	OHL	12	2	6	8	0.67
Last season	Peterborough Petes	OHL	62	13	21	34	0.55