Prospect board, #607 overall
Zack Arsenault
Right wing, 17.4 years old, Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL), 6′0″ 186 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
18%
Scouting report
Zack Arsenault is a 17-year-old right wing with Rimouski Océanic in the QMJHL. He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 11 games, 0.73 a game, which works out to about 7 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.24 a game last season. His team scores 5.2 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 186 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 18% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite3%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer8%
- Fourth-liner18%
- Tweener22%
- AHLer (most likely)52%
How he got there
1His line
0.73 P/GP
4 G, 4 A in 11 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
7 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−20%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
42 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rimouski Océanic | QMJHL | 11 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.73 |
| Last season | Rimouski Océanic | QMJHL | 58 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 0.24 |