William Stromgren

Left wing, 23.3 years old, Calgary Wranglers (AHL), 6′3″ 175 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

55%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

William Stromgren is a 23-year-old left wing with Calgary Wranglers in the AHL, a Calgary Flames second-round pick, 45 overall in 2021. He has 1 goal and 7 assists in 7 games, 1.14 a game, which works out to about 36 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.0 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 175 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 55% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 6% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 34 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite3%
First-liner6%
Middle-sixer17%
Fourth-liner (most likely)55%
Tweener80%
AHLer95%+

How he got there

1His line
1.14 P/GP
1 G, 7 A in 7 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
37 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#45
2021, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
34 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Calgary Wranglers	AHL	7	1	7	8	1.14
Last season	Calgary Wranglers	AHL	66	11	36	47	0.71