Aleksi Heimosalmi

Defence, 23.4 years old, Chicago Wolves (AHL), 6′0″ 181 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

34%

AHLer

Scouting report

Aleksi Heimosalmi is a 23-year-old defenceman with Chicago Wolves in the AHL, a Carolina Hurricanes second-round pick, 44 overall in 2021. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 6 games, 0.17 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 1.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.40 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 181 pounds.

His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 34% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 20 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
Top-pair2%
Second-pair2%
Third-pair34%
Tweener47%
AHLer (most likely)93%

How he got there

1His line
0.17 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+44%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#44
2021, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
20 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Chicago Wolves	AHL	6	1	0	1	0.17
Last season	Chicago Wolves	AHL	52	4	13	17	0.33