Prospect board, #350 overall
Topias Vilen
Defence, 23.5 years old, Utica Comets (AHL), 6′1″ 194 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
31%
Scouting report
Topias Vilen is a 23-year-old defenceman with Utica Comets in the AHL, a New Jersey Devils fifth-round pick, 129 overall in 2021. He has 0 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, 0.75 a game, which works out to about 24 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.0 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 194 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 31% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a top-pair career. If he makes it, figure about 22 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair5%
- Third-pair31%
- Tweener45%
- AHLer (most likely)95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.75 P/GP
0 G, 3 A in 4 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
24 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+23%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#129
2021, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
22 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Utica Comets | AHL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.75 |
| Last season | Utica Comets | AHL | 61 | 4 | 23 | 27 | 0.44 |