Prospect board, #346 overall
Jaroslav Chmelar
Right wing, 23.2 years old, Hartford Wolf Pack (AHL), 6′5″ 238 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
29%
Scouting report
Jaroslav Chmelar is a 23-year-old right wing with Hartford Wolf Pack in the AHL, a New York Rangers fifth-round pick, 144 overall in 2021. He has 1 goal and 0 assists in 2 games, 0.50 a game, which works out to about 16 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.1 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.69 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 238 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 29% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 31 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer7%
- Fourth-liner29%
- Tweener50%
- AHLer (most likely)92%
How he got there
1His line
0.50 P/GP
1 G, 0 A in 2 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
16 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+32%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#144
2021, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
31 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Hartford Wolf Pack | AHL | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.50 |
| Last season | Hartford Wolf Pack | AHL | 46 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 0.54 |