Prospect board, #1110 overall
Justin Ertel
Left wing, 23.3 years old, Texas Stars (AHL), 6′2″ 191 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
8%
Scouting report
Justin Ertel is a 23-year-old left wing with Texas Stars in the AHL, a Dallas Stars third-round pick, 79 overall in 2021. He has 0 goals and 0 assists in 5 games, 0.00 a game, which works out to about 0 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 191 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 8% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner8%
- Tweener11%
- AHLer (most likely)57%
How he got there
1His line
0.00 P/GP
0 G, 0 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
0 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+13%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
23.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
#79
2021, read alongside his numbers
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Texas Stars | AHL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Last season | Texas Stars | AHL | 44 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0.16 |