GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #249 overall

Frederic Brunet

Defence, 23.1 years old, Providence Bruins (AHL), 6′3″ 203 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

36%

Tweener

Scouting report

Frederic Brunet is a 23-year-old defenceman with Providence Bruins in the AHL, a Boston Bruins fifth-round pick, 132 overall in 2022. He has 12 goals and 24 assists in 65 games, 0.55 a game, which works out to about 18 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 36% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 24 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age and draft slot like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair2%
  3. Second-pair10%
  4. Third-pair36%
  5. Tweener (most likely)61%
  6. AHLer95%+

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.55 P/GP

    12 G, 24 A in 65 games, AHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    18 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −2%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    23.1

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    #132

    2022, read alongside his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    24 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonProvidence BruinsAHL651224360.55